:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 16-Feb 18 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 16-Feb 18 2026

Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18
00-03UT 4.67 (G1) 3.67 2.67
03-06UT 4.33 3.67 2.67
06-09UT 3.67 2.67 2.67
09-12UT 3.33 2.67 2.00
12-15UT 2.33 2.00 2.00
15-18UT 2.67 1.67 0.67
18-21UT 2.67 1.67 2.33
21-00UT 3.33 2.67 3.00

Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming
are likely on 16 Feb due to positive polarity CH HSS influences with
potential weak CME enhancements as a CME from 13 Feb might pass in close proximity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 16-Feb 18 2026

Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 16-Feb 18 2026

Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18
R1-R2 5% 5% 5%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 19-Feb 21 2026 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 19-Feb 21 2026

Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb 21
00-03UT 3.33 3.00 2.33
03-06UT 3.67 3.00 1.67
06-09UT 2.00 2.33 1.33
09-12UT 2.33 1.33 0.67
12-15UT 2.33 1.33 1.00
15-18UT 2.00 1.67 0.67
18-21UT 3.00 2.00 1.33
21-00UT 3.67 3.00 2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 19-Feb 21 2026

Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb 21
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 19-Feb 21 2026

Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb 21
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: Solar activity is expected to be at low levels, with a slight
chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares through 21 Feb.


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Feb 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 22-Feb 24 2026 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 22-Feb 24 2026

Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb 24
00-03UT 2.67 3.67 3.67
03-06UT 3.67 4.67 (G1) 3.67
06-09UT 2.67 3.67 2.67
09-12UT 1.67 3.67 2.67
12-15UT 2.67 2.67 2.00
15-18UT 2.67 2.67 1.67
18-21UT 3.67 2.67 1.67
21-00UT 3.67 3.67 2.67

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 23 Feb due to
effects from an anticipated coronal hole HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2026

Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb 24
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 22-Feb 24 2026

Feb 22 Feb 23 Feb 24
R1-R2 5% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There exists a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 23-24 Feb.


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (1:18/200)